Study of Food Security in South Minahasa Regency Using System Dynamics

Abstract

The definition of food security according to Law no. 18/2012 concerning Food, are: "The condition of the fulfillment of Food for the state to individuals, which is reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both in quantity and quality, safe, diverse, nutritious, equitable and affordable and does not conflict with religion, belief and community culture, to be able to live a healthy, active and productive life in a sustainable manner". Food security is thus a system with subsystems of availability, distribution, and consumption. System dynamics is a modeling method whose use is closely related to the dynamic tendencies of complex systems, namely the behavior patterns generated by the system over time. The main assumption in the system dynamics paradigm is that the dynamic tendencies that are continuous in any complex system originate from the causal structures that make up the system. In this study, the dynamic system modeling method is used to identify the behavior of the regional food security system in South Minahasa regency with the aim of analyzing the dynamics of the causal relationship of the variables that affect the food security system in terms of production, consumption, and rice stock in South Minahasa regency by using an approach system and application of dynamic systems modeling techniques. In this study, a Causal Loop (CLD) and the Stock-Flow Diagram (SFD) were developed for the rice availability system based on the relationship between the production sub-system, consumption sub-system, and the government's rice reserve sub-system involving the relationship of a number of variables to produce a model output in the form of projections of rice availability in South Minahasa regency for the period of 2020 to 2121. The results showed that food availability in period of terms of rice production in South Minahasa regency is very sufficient for the 2020 -2120 period, and there is even a surplus every year of 400% at average.