Prediction the Number of Ship Passengers in Ports Tagulandang Using the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35799/jis.v23i2.48886Keywords:
Multiplicative model, Tagulandang port, triple exponential smoothingAbstract
The purpose of this study is to predict the number of ship passengers at Tagulandang Port. The data in this study are secondary data taken from Class III Ulu Siau Harbor Master Office in the Tagulandang Working Area. In addition, the data used is the number of passengers departing from Tagulandang Port from January 2018 to December 2022. The analysis method used is the TES method which consists of two models, namely the additive model and the multiplicative model. After analysis, it is predicted that the number of departing passengers will increase in January and December 2023. Based on the prediction results, the most number of passengers will be in December 2023, which is 1354 people, which is predicted to increase the number of passengers from the previous year. Meanwhile, the prediction for the least number of passengers is in April 2023, namely 588 people, which is predicted to increase from the previous year. The best model based on the value of the accuracy of the forecasting model is the multiplicative model with a MAPE value of 11.601%.
Keywords: Multiplicative model; Tagulandang port; triple exponential smoothing
References
Afiyah, S.N., & Aqromi, N.L. (2022). Peramalan Penjualan Jumlah Kripik Di Snack Center Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Kajian Matematika Dan Aplikasinya (JKMA), 3(1), 8–14.
Andini, T.D., & Sunyoto, R.M. (2018). Sistem Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kapal Laut di Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak Surabaya Menggunakan Triple Eksponensial Smoothing Berbasis Android. POSITIF : Jurnal Sistem Dan Teknologi Informasi, 4(2), 113-118. https://doi.org/10.31961/positif.v4i2.582.
Andrian, F., Martha, S., & Rahmayuda, S. (2020). Sistem peramalan jumlah mahasiswa baru menggunakan metode. Jurnal Komputer dan Aplikasi, 08(01), 112–121.
Biri, R., Langi, Y.A.R., & Paendong, M.S. (2013). Penggunaan Metode Smoothing Eksponensial Dalam Meramal Pergerakan Inflasi Kota Palu. Jurnal Ilmiah Sains, 13(1), 69–73.
Darma, I.W.A.S., Gunawan, I.P.E.G., & Sutramiani, N.P. (2020). Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Ilmiah Merpati (Menara Penelitian Akademika Teknologi Informasi), 8(3), 211–221.
Febriyanti, A.N., & Rifai, N.A.K. (2022). Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters untuk Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api di Pulau Jawa. Bandung Conference Series: Statistics, 2(2), 152–158.
Fitria, V., & Anwar, S. (2020). Penerapan Triple Exponential Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Laju Inflasi Bulanan Provinsi Aceh Tahun 2019 – 2020. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 9(1), 23–38.
Hamidah, S.N., Salam, N., & Susanti, D.S. (2017). Teknik Peramalan Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Holt-Winters. Jurnal Matematika Murni Dan Terapan “Epsilon,” 07(2), 26–33.
Napitupulu, D.J., & Iskandar, S. (2022). Penerapan Metode Holt –Winters Exponential Smoothing Aditif Dalam Peramalan Curah Hujan. Karismatika, 8(1), 11–19.
Nurvianti, I., Setiawan, B. D., & Bachtiar, F. A. (2019). Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Keberangkatan Kereta Api di DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing. Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi Dan Ilmu Komputer, 3(6), 5257–5263.
Putro, B., Furqon, M.T., & Wijoyo, S. H. (2018). Prediksi Jumlah Kebutuhan Pemakaian Air Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi Dan Ilmu Komputer, 2(11), 4679–4686.
Rahmadani, M. N., Sulistianingsih, E., & Perdana, H. (2018). Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Dengan Metode Winter’S Exponential Smoothing Dan Pegels Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Simetris, 7(2), 1–8.
Sahli, M., & Susanti, N. (2013). Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dalam Sistem Informasi Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku (Studi Kasus Toko Tirta Harum). Simetris : Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer, 3(1), 59–69.
Setiawan, D.A., Wahyuningsih, S., & Goejantoro, R. (2019). Peramalan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Menggunakan Winter’s dan Pegel’s Exponential Smoothing dengan Pemantauan Tracking Signal. Jambura Journal of Mathematics, 2(1), 1–14.
Yusuf, F.I., & Anjasari, D.H. (2018). Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt Winter untuk peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Nusantara Di Kabupaten Banyuwangi. Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science, 4(2), 1–6.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Morisa Martha Kasawehi, Djoni Hatidja, Yohanes Andreas Robert Langi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
LICENCE: CC-BY-NC
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
