PERUBAHAN GARIS PANTAI TERHADAP PERMUKIMAN TERHADAP PERMUKIMAN PESISIR BERKELANJUTAN DI KECAMATAN TUMINTING KOTA MANADO

Abstract

ABSTRAK

Perubahan garis pantai dapat memengaruhi perkembangan permukiman pesisir. Garis pantai di wilayah pesisir Kecamatan Tuminting mengalami perubahan signifikan pada periode 2003–2025 yang berdampak pada area hunian dan kondisi perekonomian masyarakat. Penelitian ini menganalisis dinamika abrasi dan akresi terhadap luas permukiman serta pengaruhnya pada kondisi sosial ekonomi penduduk lokal menggunakan analisis spasial, korelasi, dan analisis jalur (path analysis). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pesisir Tuminting didominasi oleh akresi yang menambah luas permukiman sebesar 0,17 Km2 dengan korelasi kuat (r = 0,638), sementara abrasi mereduksi lahan hunian sebesar 0,02 Km2 dengan korelasi kuat (r = -0,639). Analisis jalur membuktikan abrasi dan akresi berkontribusi langsung sebesar 59,14% terhadap aspek ekonomi, sedangkan luas permukiman berkontribusi sebesar 66,42%. Hasil regresi menghasilkan model Z2=-2,954+0,395+0,561+0,889 hal ini menegaskan bahwa perubahan garis pantai dan luas permukiman berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kondisi ekonomi masyarakat, dengan luas permukiman sebagai faktor penentu paling dominan, sementara pengaruh terhadap aspek sosial tidak signifikan. Diperlukan penataan ruang pesisir berbasis data spasial dan penguatan mitigasi bencana untuk mendukung keberlanjutan permukiman pesisir

Kata Kunci: Abrasi, Akresi, Perubahan Garis Pantai, Kondisi Sosial Ekonomi, Path Analysis, Kecamatan Tuminting

ABSTRACT

Coastline changes can affect the development of coastal settlements. The coastline in the coastal area of Tuminting District experienced significant changes in the period 2003–2025 which impacted residential areas and the economic conditions of the community. This study analyzed the dynamics of abrasion and accretion on the area of settlements and their influence on the socio-economic conditions of the local population using spatial analysis, correlation, and path analysis. The results showed that the Tuminting coastline was dominated by accretion which increased the area of settlements by 0.17 km2 with a strong correlation (r = 0.638), while abrasion reduced residential land by 0.02 km2 with a strong correlation (r = -0.639). Path analysis proved that abrasion and accretion contributed directly by 59.14% to the economic aspect, while the area of settlements contributed by 66.42%. The regression results produced a model Z2=-2.954+0.395+0.561+0.889, confirming that changes in the coastline and the area of settlements have a positive and significant impact on the economic conditions of the community, with the area of settlements being the most dominant determining factor, while the influence on social aspects is not significant. Coastal spatial planning based on spatial data and strengthening of disaster mitigation are needed to support the sustainability of coastal settlements.

Keywords: Abrasion, Accretion, Shoreline Change, Socio-Economic Conditions, Path Analysis,Tuminting District