INTEGRASI EKONOMI DAN SINKRONISASI SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN 5+3

Authors

  • Mochamad Onky Prahasetia Tandjung Tandjung universitas Airlangga
  • Unggul Heriqbaldi universitas airlangga

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35794/jmbi.v10i2.49950

Abstract

Abstract. Economic integration in ASEAN5+3 is formed after the implementation of free trade in ASEAN. The purposed of ASEAN formation to create stable, welfare and competitive economy. One of the requirements to create the currency union will depend on the level of business cycles synchronization with other countries. The more similar of business cycles among countries the more possible to create a regime of collective exchange rate. The Objective of this research is to  find out the determinants factor potentially influence the occurrence of business cycles synchronization in ASEAN5+3. This research involves time series data 2002 – 2013 and the cross section data of eight ASEAN plus three countries by using dynamic panel instruments. The estimated result shows that the variable of trade intensity, finance integration, similarity of structure industry, coordination fiscal policy, coordination monetary policy and inflation effect significantly the business cycle synchronization.

 

Abstrak.  Integrasi ekonomi di ASEAN5+3 terbentuk setelah diterapkannya perdagangan bebas di ASEAN. Tujuan pembentukan ASEAN untuk menciptakan perekonomian yang stabil, sejahtera, dan kompetitif. Salah satu persyaratan untuk membentuk kesatuan mata uang akan bergantung pada tingkat sinkronisasi siklus bisnis dengan negara lain. Semakin mirip siklus bisnis antar negara, semakin besar kemungkinan terciptanya rezim nilai tukar kolektif. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktor determinan yang berpotensi mempengaruhi terjadinya sinkronisasi siklus bisnis di ASEAN5+3. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series 2002 – 2013 dan data cross section delapan negara ASEAN plus tiga negara dengan menggunakan instrumen panel dinamis. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel intensitas perdagangan, integrasi keuangan, kesamaan struktur industri, koordinasi kebijakan fiskal, koordinasi kebijakan moneter dan inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap sinkronisasi siklus bisnis.

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Published

2023-08-30

How to Cite

Tandjung, M. O. P. T., & Heriqbaldi, U. (2023). INTEGRASI EKONOMI DAN SINKRONISASI SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN 5+3. JMBI UNSRAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis Dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi)., 10(2), 1587–1609. https://doi.org/10.35794/jmbi.v10i2.49950