SPURIOUS REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON TIME SERIES DATA FROM FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEXS IN 1990 â€“ 2017
In a spurious regressionÂ conditionsÂ occur linear regression equations that are not stationary on the mean and variance. If the variables are not stationary, there will beÂ cointegration,Â soÂ it can be concludedÂ that thereÂ is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two research variablesÂ andÂ in the short term there is a possibility of an imbalance, so to overcome it in this study using the Error Correction Model. The purpose of this study is to apply aÂ cointegrationÂ test to see whether there is a long-termÂ non-equilibriumÂ relationship between the time series between theÂ HumanÂ Development Index and life expectancy at birth, average school year for adults aged 25 years and over and gross national income perÂ capita. The data used in this study are timeÂ seriesÂ data between 1990-2017.Â TheÂ statistical management is carried out usingÂ EviewsÂ 10. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that 81.7% and it can be said thatÂ the typesÂ of independent variables included in the model are alreadyÂ good, because only 18.3% of the diversity of the dependent variable is influenced by the independent variables outside this research model.
Keywords: spurious regression, stationary,Â cointegration, error correction model, equilibrium
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